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In order to obtain economic convergence between the Member States a precise calendar
has been established which is split into three stages:
1. June 1990
Abolition of capital controls
2. From 1994 to 1999
A transitory period to obtain the adoption of fixed parities between the different
currencies. The European Monetary Institute was created. Independence of
the Central Banks.
3. 1999
Functioning of the European Central Bank, the European Central Bank System
(ECBS), irrevocable fixing of exchange rates, introduction of the single
currency, and application of a common Community policy.
The States that take part in the third phase of the EMU will have to comply
with five conditions:
— The public deficit may not be more than 3% of GDP.
— The public debt nay not exceed 60% of GDP.
— Inflation may not be greater than 1.5 points of the annual arithmetic
average of the three countries with the lowest inflation.
— Interest rates may not exceed those of the three countries with the best
performance in terms of prices by more than 2 points.
— Exchange rate stability. Participating countries must remain in the EMS
for at least the two years prior to the start of Monetary Union without devaluing.
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02.
ADVANTAGES OF THE EMU |
The reduction of the public deficit of governments and of inflation should make
interest rates fall. This will promote investment, reducing unemployment and generating
more internal consumption. Thus, tax income and social contributions will increase,
helping governments to reduce public deficit. The 15 countries of the European
Union, except for Greece (which does not meet the convergence criteria), the United
Kingdom (through choice), Denmark (through choice) and Sweden (due to not having
an independent Central Bank) will form part of the Monetary Union. An economic
environment with controlled public deficits and inflation and low rates of inflation,
generates greater investment and therefore promotes the creation of employment.
This implies an increase in consumption. On the other hand, there will also be
more competition and transparency, which also favour increased consumption.
ADVANTAGES: Politically, Spain will benefit from increased confidence
as it is on of EMU countries. From the economic point of view, it will have a
stable currency, the cost to companies of transacting business and covering exchange
rates will diminish, investment will be favoured and there will be lower interest
rates. In addition, consumption should increase.
DISADVANTAGES: There will be no recourse to the devaluation of the Peseta
in order to favour exports and reactivate the internal market. Complying with
a 3% deficit rate could slow down public investment and investment in less developed
areas, etc. On the other hand, adaptation to the Euro involves a cost to the Administration,
to companies and to private individuals. There will also be a reduction in subsidies
received from the EU.
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03.
THE VALUE OF THE EURO |
The factors which could determine the value of the Euro might be: the rate of
exchange of the market with respect to the ECU on the last working day before
the 3rd. phase; the fixing of the conversion rates to the market value on the
day that it is decided which countries will enter the 3rd. phase of the EMU; the
average (weighted or not) during a period of time, of the rate of exchange with
respect to the ECU of each currency. The stability of the Euro will depend upon
the currencies to which it relates (U.S. $, Yen, Swiss Franc.), upon the rates
of interest in relation to said currencies and, upon the economic cycles of the
countries in the EMU in relation to that of the remaining countries. The Euro
will fluctuate with respect to the other currencies, although with respect to
the U.S. $ and the Yen it will do so to a lesser extent than at present. The rate
of exchange of the Euro with respect to third party countries will come about
by fixing the rate of exchange of the Euro with respect to the currencies of the
countries that make up the single currency. It will be the market which establishes
the parity of the Euro and the currencies of third party countries.
The ECOFIN (Council of Ministers of Economy and Finance) will define the general
lines of exchange rate policy, taking into account the opinions of the ECBS and
it will be up to the ECB to apply said policy. The disappearance of the Peseta
will take place on 1/1/2002 at the latest, to coincide with the entry into circulation
of the Euro notes and coins. In January of 1999 the Peseta-Euro rate of exchange
will be fixed and will be unmoveable as from this date. The estimated rate of
exchange will be 167 Ptas. =1 Euro. The name Euro was adopted at the proposal
of Germany during the European Council held in Madrid in December of 1995. The
ISO code for the Euro will be EUR.
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04.
THE EURO AND THE DOLLAR |
Will the Euro more important than the Dollar? Nobody knows. If the credibility
of the ECB and its fight against inflation is established, and if it is possible
to limit the debt situation of the countries that make up the EMU, it will be
more likely. In addition, the ECB should avoid applying interest rates that are
too low (in order to avoid an economic recession, favouring productivity and reducing
unemployment).
It is forecast that the Euro will represent 40% of the market, the U.S.$ another
40% with the remaining 20% being shared amongst other currencies. The Euro will
be stronger than the U.S.$ depending upon three factors: the volume of international
trade both in the U.S.A. and in the EMU countries and the currencies that they
use; the dimension of the European financial system and; the extent to which the
Euro is used as a reserve currency.
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This guarantees budgetary discipline amongst the countries that enter the 3rd.
Phase; of the EMU so that the commitment to reduce public deficit is maintained.
In the short term it should settle at below 3% of GDP and in the long term it
should be balanced or show a surplus. In exceptional circumstances a deficit of
more than 3% may be allowed when there is economic recession (a reduction in GDP
of more than 2%) or in uncontrollable situations.
Those countries that have a deficit in excess of 3% of GDP must make an interest
free deposit for a sum equal to 0.2% of their GDP plus 0.1% for each point in
excess of the maximum authorised deficit. If the deficit carries on for two years
longer than the permitted maximum period, the deposit will became a fine.
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06.
CENTRAL EUROPEAN BANK |
The 3rd Phase will involve the creation of the European Central Bank
which will adopt the monetary policy of the collective group of States and the
creation of a single currency for all of the countries in the EU. However, the
divergences between the economic indicators and the different responses at a social
level that were generated by the EU (Danish referendum of June '92, social
protests in France at the end of '95) cast a doubt on the calendar that was agreed
in Maastrich.
The ECB began to function on the 1st June 1998. Up to the launch date of the Euro
(1st January 1999) the ECB will basically be entrusted with controlling the rates
of exchange of the 11 countries that will adopt the single currency from its inception,
in order to avoid speculators taking advantage of this period of transition and
to prepare conditions for the unification of the monetary policies of the Euro
countries.
The control will take place in coordination with the corresponding national issuing
banks. The ECB must define its organisation chart and increase current staff levels
in the European Monetary Institute, the organism which will replace the ECB.
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The institutions were created in order to bring about an "ever-closer Union" of
European nations. As the responsibilities of the Union have increased, so have
the institutions grown in both size and number. During the first twenty years:
- The Commission has set about proposing
- The Parliament has set about passing judgement
- The Council of Ministers has set about deciding and
- The Justice Tribunal has set about interpreting community Law.
During the last twenty years the Parliament has developed to the extent of
being elected by direct suffrage and has acquired new powers, the European
Audit Office has been created, the European Investment Bank has become
an important source of financing for economic development, the Social and Economic
Committee has allowed for debate and cooperation between social partners and,
most recently, the Regions Committee has been set up to promote regional
interests and to represent regional diversity.
These institutions work closely together, cooperating in a constructive manner
for the benefit of all the citizens.
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This is the system of payments that the single monetary policy will maintain as
from 1/1/1999. It is made up of two elements: a mechanism for settling gross payments
in real time and a computer connection system which will link national systems.
Its name is derived from "Trans European Automated Real Time Gross Settlement
Express Transfer".
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The levels of Value Added Tax (V.A.T.) in the different Member States should converge
to the same value, establishing a common value added tax system. A Community
F.I.N. (Fiscal Identity Number) will also be established (the normal fiscal
identity number preceded by a code for the Member State). To mitigate the possible
differences in the trade balances between the Member States, the Law foresees
that the differences in V.A.T. between the different countries should be compensated
by means of a central account according to whether a country is a net importer
or exporter.
Companies
and the Euro
Depending upon different factors (level of internationalisation, suppliers,
clients, size, market position, effects of image, etc.), each company should set
the rhythm and the extent of their adaptation to the Euro. To do this they should
plan correctly, analysing the repercussions in the different areas of operation,
studying the costs, etc. The company may opt for implantation a): from the beginning
of the transition phase (4/01/1999), except for cash operations. Adopt or not?
B): Between 1999-2001, with progressive implantation. C): As from 1/01/2002 with
the definitive incorporation of the Euro.
Advantages to the companies
Low interest rates will stimulate investment, so companies will be able to finance
themselves at a longer term. The stock markets will develop more, favouring the
issue of fixed income stock in large companies. In addition, the lowering of interest
might favour variable interest rates, which will be of benefit to companies that
are quoted on the stock exchange (for example in the event of increasing capital).
Exchange rate risks in countries within the EMU will disappear., reducing costs.
Community means of payment will tend to homogenise, providing greater security
and speed and reducing costs (transaction and valuation days). The greater transparency
of prices will make generate cheaper imports and an increase in competition between
suppliers.
Disadvantages
The increase in competition could mean loss of market share in national markets.
Quality levels could rise whilst prices or price/quality ratios drop. The technological
level of products and services should tend to unify. On the other hand, the company
will compete in a market with different fiscal pressures, social costs, union/employers
agreements, etc. "Political" devaluation will no longer be of use in order to
become more competitive. In principle, exports to third party countries will be
affected by a high rate of exchange, which will force companies to reduce their
costs to the maximum. Imports will tend to become cheaper
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Retail companies will be the most affected as they will have to adapt to the change
in six months and will have to operate in two currencies. There is no need to
design different invoice procedures for Pesetas and Euros, as long as the currency
that is being used is clearly stated. There will be problems with vending machines,
cash registers, etc. Credit cards may solve this problem.
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11.
COMMERCIAL POLICES OF COMPANIES |
Companies should show their Euro prices with two decimal points, which means very
precise rounding up is required in order that products remain competitive. They
should, in addition, bear in mind psychological prices. They can opt for a policy
of informing the consumer as to how the price has been converted to Euros. As
the single currency starts to circulate there will be a trend towards greater
transparency and the consumer will be able to compare the price of products more
easily. This new market creates new business opportunities, which should be taken
into account when deciding commercial policy.
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Prices need not necessarily be the same in countries within the EMU. In fact,
different prices exist within the same country. However, the Euro will make price
comparisons easier, which could mean a trend towards the homogenisation of prices.
During the period of coexistence between the Peseta and the Euro prices will almost
certainly be shown in both currencies, although this is not obligatory. It is
estimated that initially there will be a rise in prices as they will be rounded
up, although it should be remembered that one of the objectives of the ECB is
to control inflation.
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Psychological prices (9,999 Ptas), upon conversion to Euros, will have a direct
influence. In this example, when the rate of exchange is applied it will become
60.96 Euros, which could mean 60.99 Euros if it is rounded up or 59.99 Euros if
it is rounded down. In some cases, the psychological price could lead to modifications
in the product, in its presentation, in the value added chain, etc.
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Payment orders (transfers, standing orders, etc.) will be in Pesetas until 1/1/99.
Between this date and 31/12/2001 they may be in Pesetas and/or Euros. As from
1/1/2002, only in Euros. A cheque issued in Pesetas before 2002 and cashed after
30/06/2002 will still be valid (if the cheque itself is legal) and will be paid
in Euros.
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Both companies and individuals may do their accounting in Euros as long as their
books and ledgers are kept in the same currency (once the euro has been adopted
they may not revert to using the Peseta). All entries, books and ledgers must
be in Euros.
That is to say, the exchange rate differences that arise from the change to Euros,
contracts and exchange rate operations, expenses deriving from the introduction
of the Euro and differences produced from rounding up or down will all be reflected
in the results. Debts in foreign currency for the financing of real estate construction
can be activated. Operations that are identified as the extension, improvement
or renovation of a real estate property should be accounted for at the greater
value.
The inclusion of provisions for the costs derived from the change to Euros will
be allowed, as long as the risks or costs are identified as regards their provenance
and the closing date of the account. The risks or costs must be probable or real
but undetermined in terms of their amount or when they are produced.
The introduction of the Euro might have repercussions on the valuation of some
fixed assets, given that their useful life will be shortened (vending machines,
cash registers, hardware and software, etc).
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It is recommended that new contracts that are signed, particularly with third
party countries, should include an additional adaptation clause similar to the
following:
"In the event that during the effective period of this contract the local currency
should become the European currency (Euro), in substitution of the Peseta, the
only legal means of payment and settlement of the contractual obligations agreed
herein will be the new European monetary unit as from the day on which said substitution
takes place".
During the period of simultaneous coexistence of the Peseta and the Euro,a
right to choose may be contractually agreed (payment in Euros or in Pesetas).
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